Pininfarina partners up with Foxconn: Chinese EV market consolidation

  • Brand: Pininfarina
  • Topic: Electric Vehicle Market, Strategy & Marketing

Pininfarina just presented its latest automotive partnership offspring, the luxury saloon car developed for Taiwanese Hon Hai Precision Industry (鸿海集团), better known as Foxconn Technology Group.

Most of those who know this company will associate it with smartphones. The Asian giant has in fact been for years the largest tech manufacturer in the world, reaching up to 40% of the world’s supply of consumer electronics (Apple, Sony, Xiaomi, Nokia, Oppo, Vivo, Huawei, and more). But that is rapidly changing.Model E Exterior*Foxtron Model E

In the article Will Luxury and Super Sports Cars become Consumer Electronics?, I looked into how the automotive industry is changing with electrification. On-board technology is becoming increasingly important, and will likely become the most important differentiating factor in the future as the performance differences flatten, considering the relative “ease” with which extreme performance is obtained on EVs compared to ICE cars. And the definitive proof of this is the number and variety of tech companies approaching the automotive industry with their own project, or AI or autonomous driving software development. This industry-sized revolution is bringing unprecedented opportunities for tech and IT companies, as seen last week as well with iMaker and Porsche Ventures Partnership.

With this comes a strong change in communication strategy. Now an increasing part of the EV promotion comes through tech reviewers, instead of (or along with) automotive ones, and the two communities grow ever closer.

So, what does this partnership mean for Foxconn and the Chinese luxury market?

FOXCONN AUTOMOTIVE ASPIRATIONS

Foxconn is probably the most emblematic example of the change undergoing in the automotive industry and the new approaches that will define it. In the East, the tech giant is moving in different directions.

2021 alone saw numerous important announcements.

foxconn timeline

  • In January it was announced a 50-50 Joint Venture with Geely Holding Group (Volvo, Polestar, Lotus, among others) to manufacture EVs for other companies.

  • In late February, it was announced that in partnership with Fisker Automotive, Foxconn would manufacture up to 250,000 units of Fisker’s upcoming SUV Ocean, in its Wisconsin industrial plant.

  • In May, another Joint Venture, this time with Stellantis, formed Mobile Drive. A division pooling the two Groups’ know-how to develop the next stage of electric vehicles’ digital features, interface, and user experience.

  • July 6th saw the announcement of the MIH Consortium. A collaboration project involving numerous professionals within the automotive and electric mobility industries to create an open EV ecosystem with the intent of accelerating innovation, lowering the entry barriers to the sector, and promoting collaboration. This somewhat recalls what Google did for smartphones with Android.

  • In August, the company acquired from Taiwanese Macronix (旺宏电子) a 6-inch semiconductors plant for TWD2.25 billion (£65.7 million). This will be crucial not just for Foxconn itself now that it has expansion aims into the automotive industry, but also for the entire industry as it still faces a serious chip shortage that hindered numerous manufacturers’ production.

  • In September is the announcement of Foxconn acquired the former GM factory in Ohio from Lordstown Motors for $230 million (£167 million). In turn, it will produce the startup’s pick-up truck Endurance. This will allow the Taiwanese giant to establish its presence in the American automotive market even more, and let Lordstown adopt a less capital-intensive business model. Something that several automotive startups are adopting. Another sign of the industry’s change.

Last then is the announcement regarding the launch of the new luxury electric car designed by Pininfarina, and the wider brand Foxtron. The so-called Model E designed by the Italian coachbuilder, in fact, is just one of the three models that the tech firm intends to launch on the market. The other two called Model C and Model T will be a c-segment crossover and a bus for public transport.

The Model E will be destined to the high-end segment of the market and is teased as a refined, and business-focused car, elegant but still capable to deliver impressive performance (0-100 km/h in 2.8 seconds), with 750 hp and 750 km of range.

 

Pininfarina has worked both on the exterior and interior to convey the elegance synonymous with its brand, but also to integrate lots of technology. The car should feature every technical capability of a high-end modern EV. Seamless connectivity, electronically activated doors and windows, facial recognition, matrix lighting, and cutting-edge user interface. All of this serves specifically the rear passenger that (while being chauffeured) should be able to easily continue working as in a dedicated office.

THE CHINESE MARKET

Foxconn enters a market that is already extremely crowded in the East. While on the one hand, it has the scale advantage, being a tech giant and having already established numerous partnerships, on the other, even China the biggest automotive market in the world, where EVs are causing a proper revolution, is pushing for consolidation. And the space is already quite crowded with companies selling in the premium and luxury segments, that have already established their names or attracted consumers’ attention with tech and innovation.

CHINESE 2021 EV PREMIUM MODELS

chinese cars table

According to China’s National Monitoring and Management Center for New Energy Vehicles (新能源汽车国家监测与管理中心) in 2019, 486 new energy vehicle companies successfully applied and were registered, and 5,827 models passed the vehicle compliance test. A big part of this is the ‘Made in China 2025’ plan devised to promote the development of ten strategic industries, among which is also the new energy mobility through subsidies and rebates.

Ithome quotes the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology’s minister Xiao Yaqing who is encouraging the local governments to leave to the market the role of defining the Chinese EV market. This should eventually lead (as it happened in other sectors) to mergers, reorganisation, and market consolidation.  

WHAT ABOUT THE FUTURE OF CHINA’S LUXURY AUTOMOTIVE SEGMENT?

A few months back in the article EV Market Growth 3 years later: China and the rest of the world a look at the 10 best-selling Chinese EV models highlighted how despite cheap cars dominating the market, Tesla topped it with Model 3. Tesla’s fastback is not just the only foreign EV in that list, but also quite above the average price of most of the models right below it. This shows that there is still an interest for foreign products in the top end of the market (considering also the reputation Tesla’s brand has in the early adopters’ community that other established brands don’t have).

2021 will be an interesting indication of how this market segment has evolved as several premium American and European companies have delivered electric vehicles for the entire year. For instance, Porsche that has a strong presence in Asia with China as its biggest national market recorded strong growth in 2021 since the first quarter even in the electric segment.

In several tech-intensive industries, Chinese companies have been able to gain leading positions in just a few years thanks to their strong innovative push and radically different approach from their competitors.

Cars however represent a much bigger investment and thus also one on which, as of now, consumers are more emotionally involved. So it is easier to imagine customers relying more on well-known brands at least in the short to medium term in foreign markets. On domestic soil, however, the strong creativity and brand diversification, such as the one shown by Human Horizons HiPhi X, help a few of these brands gain that reputation to become the ‘next Tesla’ with young generations.

One key factor for the success of these start-ups could be the change of car ownership standards. If car-sharing keeps becoming more popular (which should not be taken for granted), EV start-ups could more easily penetrate new markets through public fleets contracts. In turn, this would also help increase brand awareness. According to McKinsey, the global shared-mobility market value in 2019 stood between $130 and 140 billion (£94-101 billion). Its presence in Europe and America, however, is not as strong as it is in China.

mckinsey*Source:McKinsey

Foxconn and its Foxtron Model E developed with Pininfarina have the advantage of a strong financial position, the know-how of a long-standing coachbuilder, as well as its brand recognition. However, it might still be early for Asian companies (not even automakers) to establish themselves in foreign markets, and incidentally, they already face strong and increasing competition in their home market.

Taycan outsells the 911: Porsche’s strategy between EVs and iMaker’s Virtual Influencers

  • Brand: Porsche
  • Topic: Electric Vehicle Market, Strategy & Marketing

In its latest report, Porsche confirmed the record results of the first half of 2021. Despite the ongoing chip shortage that is affecting the industry with production and logistics bottlenecks, Porsche minimised the delays by retrofitting vehicles’ missing parts.

Some in the factory, others once delivered to the dealers, some even post-sale. So, on October 15th press release Porsche confirmed 217,198 deliveries, up 13% on the previous year.

porsche us*Porsche US

According to Member of the Executive Board for Sales and Marketing at Porsche, Detlev von Platen, flexibility in facing all these challenges has been key so far and will still be in the coming months.

PORSCHE’S 2021 SO FAR

In the picture below there are two clear winners. One is the SUVs Macan, selling 61,944 unitsand significantly improving on the previous year. Cayenne tops the sales at 62,451 cars delivered, but with a slight decrease over 2020. This is probably due to product life-cycle, but potentially also because Porsche’s electric line-up offers an appealing alternative. The second winner is in fact the Taycan family. These have reached an 28,640 units, up an impressive 161.7% on the same period in 2020. Naturally, a big part of this result has to be due to the addition of the Cross Turismo iteration. Along with being a more practical version of the regular Taycan, a similar pricing to Cayenne for all the trim levels, and the significant incentives in different countries (i.e. rebates for both private and company vehicles in the UK, or China where according to 工业和信息化部 – Ministry of Industry and information total incentives reached CN¥33 billion), are factors that are pushing Porsche buyers to opt for the EV instead of the traditional ICE.

The big news here though is that, so far, through 2021, the Taycan has surpassed the 911. While is not the first time over a single quarter, it is the first time over a YTD period. This however is not to say that the sports car did bad. Its sales increased by a sizeable 10.1% in 2021, making it the fourth model in the line-up.

PORSCHE SALES BY MODEL AND GROWTH % YOY (JANUARY TO SEPTEMBER 2021)

porsche sales

From a market share point of view, it is also interesting to observe how the regional markets are recovering from the 2020 hit. The most striking improvement has been recorded in America with a 29% growth (the US alone has increased its sales by 30%), followed by the APAC region with 12%. Europe instead has remained fairly stable.

PORSCHE’S REGIONAL MARKET SHARES (2020-2021)

MAP

WHAT WE KNOW SO FAR AND SOME OBSERVATIONS

Numerous Taycan owners report benefits of the EV ownership, going way beyond the initial purchase incentives. Several, especially when it comes to everyday use, report they do not see themselves ever switching back to an ICE car.

Porsche is releasing the EVs and the market has responded. Confirming that, as far as everyday cars go, the big shift to electric powertrains could come earlier than expected for many buyers. The combination of novelty, reduced ownership costs, good driving experience, and overall convenience are driving customers faster than some anticipated in certain countries.

So, following the market trends, the next EV by Porsche will be the smaller SUV Macan, likely coming in 2023. What is even more interesting though is a rumour started by a report of Car and Driver from a few weeks ago. It is said that the next in line for the “electric powertrain treatment” would be the 718 Cayman/Boxster, coming by 2024 and somehow teased by the Mission R seen at the Munich IAA show. This choice does not just make sense but could turn into a huge hit, for different reasons.

718 CAYMAN/BOXSTER SALES (2014-2020)

718

The 718 range has been stagnating for quite a few years now. Giving it a complete restyle, bringing it up to the most modern standards with new technologies and powertrain seems the best opportunity to shake up the segment bringing new interest especially in new generations.

The report quoted before claims that in China (Porsche’s biggest market by far as seen in the graph above), the average 718 buyer is around 31 years old. So, delivering an ‘affordable’ sports car that looks to appeal specifically to this generation could be the best strategic move to save this segment.

The second reason why a full-electric 718 could be a big hit is that effectively, as of now, there are no true competitors. Porsche, according to this rumour, would be focusing much of its efforts on weight reduction, with a 1655 kg target, significantly lower than the average current EV, while still delivering power close to the 911’s line. In Zuffenhausen though, they are not afraid of product cannibalisation because the two cars along with offering completely different technologies will also be marketed for different audiences.

If Porsche manages to release a similar vehicle in just over two years, it could really come to the market with few to no competitors and a product that significantly rejuvenates this segment.

 

NOT JUST AUTOMOTIVE: IMAKER

Porsche Ventures, the venture capital division of Porsche AG, has invested in iMaker, a Chinese startup specialised in the development of digital influencers and ecosystems. This is another initiative that shows its focus on the Chinese market and the new generations, but also its forward-looking attitude and which, has been perfectly expressed by an Italian automotive journalist who said: “Porsche has always been a company that sees the world five minutes ahead of anyone else”. President and CEO of Porsche China Jens Puttfarcken statement reflect this very concept too:

“In its role as a traditional sports car manufacturer, Porsche has always been the driving force behind change and innovation. We want to remain at the forefront of the automotive industry as we move into the digital age. The investment by Porsche Ventures is an important step in implementing our digital strategy and the start of an extended partnership with iMaker”

The strategic investment aims at creating an ecosystem to improve the user experience in future Porsche’s digital interfaces within the vehicles. The collaboration should contribute to providing new digital products and services and improving the overall digital journey.

ayayi*The digital influencer Ayayi created by iMaker is already quite popular in China’s 小红书 platform

Interestingly, digital influencers have been a growing trend for quite a while in Asia, started in 2007 by Japanese Hatsune Miku. They are digitally-created avatars, often (not always) with extremely photorealistic appearance, and used for product and events promotion, as well as a number of other marketing activities. This is significant as it has the potential to change a huge market. A survey on a sample of 10,000 Chinese users (2021中国虚拟偶像消费市场调研报告) reports that over 60% of the audience is willing to accept purchasing suggestions by virtual idols. A similar research by iiMedia Research 艾媒咨询 estimates this market core value at CN¥3.46 billion (£393 million).

While this, like other recent digital trends, could be one that catches the Asian markets but fails to do the same in the west, if it does gain momentum, could change the structure of the consumers’ digital experience translating in significantly lower costs for brands.

So, it seems highly unlikely even to imagine, in a few years, to be greeted by an AI upon entering a Porsche. Something that already happens on some Chinese vehicles. Nonetheless, it will be interesting to see how iMaker, being so exposed to new digital trends, interprets the future digital experience for Porsche.

Chip Shortage in luxury automotive: the Perfect Storm

  • Topic: Electric Vehicle Market, Supercars Future

By now, the chip shortage has been going on for longer than many people may think and has affected pretty much everyone in different ways.

You might have tried to purchase a product and either got the message that severe delays would occurr or simply the good you were after is out of stock.

A constant stream of news has been published in the past months about phones, gaming consoles, and the likes being delayed, or simply extremely rare to find, with soaring prices on some marketplaces. The same has been happening to automakers and dealers. Interviewed by CNBC, AlixPartner’s automotive and industrial practice managing director, Dan Hearsch claims this is a critical issue for the industry as modern vehicles, on average, need around 1,400 chips. This number is also going to increase with new vehicles, especially the electric ones, packing more and more integrated technology for ADAS, connectivity, and autonomous capabilities. The same source forecasts a loss of $210 billion for automakers in 2021, with a decrease of 7.7 million vehicles’ production. Several companies are, in fact, being forced to shut down at least parts of their production plants.   

HOW DID THE SHORTAGE COME ABOUT IN THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY?

The first cause for the auto industry was the slump in sales in the first half of 2020 due to the pandemic. But not the only one.

Automotive groups delayed or cancelled parts of their orders for microprocessors when the factories went into lockdown and certain markets lost as much as 60% in sales over the first two quarters. At the same time though, consumer electronics saw a sudden rise as people, forced to stay at home, had to upgrade their home set-up to keep working, or simply spend more on digital entertainment.

Arguably, the two most important factors in this picture however are that the concentration of the semiconductors market and the extreme difficulty of the production process. While lots of companies design their own chips, in fact, the vast majority outsources its production to very few manufacturers.

MAJOR SEMICONDUCTOR COMPANIES QUARTERLY MARKET SHARE (2019-2021)

market share*Source: Statista

Over the last two years, Taiwan Semiconductors Manufacturing Company (TSMC) had an average share of over 50% of the global market. For companies focusing more on automotive, the market is less concentrated, but the number of players is still quite limited, with the 5 top companies accounting for over 50% of the total $33.5 billion revenue of the segment in 2020. 

MAJOR AUTOMOTIVE SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURERS IN 2020 BY REVENUE

automotive semic*Source:The Information Network

This is a significant structural risk that will surely change in the future (as a matter of fact, it is changing right now already).

So, as automakers reduced their orders in 2020, semiconductors manufacturers shifted their production to focus on the rising demand from other markets. However, because the production is so complex, these changes can take months. When the automotive sales started to recover faster than expected automakers found themselves exposed to a severe lack of supply.

Three more are the factors that most likely exacerbated the current situation. One is the continued rise of cryptocurrencies, with miners driving an increase in chips’ prices due to the higher demand for equipment. Second, the fire at Renesas(the fourth company in revenue for automotive chips as shown in the graph above) in Japan, that back in march burnt 600 square feet of machinery. The full recovery alone took over three months.

Finally, instances of Chinese dealers and firms stockpiling chips are a contributing factor as well. TSMC’s Mark Liu, talking with Time claimed that several companies in China had been stockpiling chips due to fear of being targeted as it happened to Huawei. The Taiwan manufacturer, in fact, halted its supply when the US accused the Chinese giant of being a proxy of the Chinese government.

Another side of the same medal is Chinese companies hoarding these semiconductors to drive up the prices. Bloomberg already reported that the China’s state of Administration for Market Regulation launched an investigation to verify this behaviour and punish companies found to be at fault.

To top it all off, as mentioned in the beginning, BEV's new and developing technologies will require more and more semiconductors in the future.

bmw interior*Source:BMW Media

 

FURTHER RISKS FOR THE FUTURE

The shortage is not over, yet there are additional risks for the future of the sector. Even if production capacity goes back to match the industry demand, there is another risk that could endanger the industry in the next years.IHS Markit senior automotive analyst Phil Amsrud told Euronews that semiconductor suppliers require now longer firm orders. Susquehanna Financial Group told Bloomberg that back in July, lead times reached an all-time high of 20.2 weeks between order and delivery.These difficulties, along with the current low supply may induce automakers in hoarding chips too. This seems to be the case as another representative from IHS Markit claimed that suppliers received orders corresponding to well over 100 million vehicles which they already know is far above what the industry will achieve this year.The stockpiling could cause a new imbalance in the future. And it would not be anything new. A similar situation happened already in 2019. The forecasts of 2018, which had been a positive year for the automotive market, led to larger orders of semiconductors by automakers for 2019. That year though, the slowdown led by the Chinesemarket meant that big suppliers, such as German Infineon and Japanese Renesas, incurred serious overproduction issues. As a result, Infineon had to lower its revenue guidance for the year twice, due to a stagnating second half, and Renesas had to halt production.

SOLUTION FOR LUXURY AUTOMAKERS?

Industry experts suggest that the shortage is not ending anytime soon, and as highlighted there are no true short-term options. McKinsey suggests that automakers, suppliers, and manufacturers review their contracts for semiconductors sourcing, making more binding commitments, and establish a balanced risk-sharing plan.

mckinsey chart*Source:McKinsey

For luxury automakers, the possibility to focus on high-margin vehicles is an important advantage in the face of reduced supply and increasing prices. As for low-volume manufacturers, the build-to-order strategy, or in general the ‘just-in-time’ supply chain popular in automotive, can be a double-edged sword. Lower supplies requirements can expose to risks in case of a shortage, but can also mean more ease in finding the resources needed and management efficiency.

In Europe, Bosch as a major supplier that collaborates with different luxury automakers was not affected as badly as other companies. However, its issues prompted a warning for the entire industry stating that the current supply chain is no longer suited for the modern automotive industry.

For this reason, the German company has built a new €1 billion plant, and many other manufacturers, such as TSMC, Samsung, and Intel, are doing the same, investing tens of billions to localise their production and reduce the reliance on third parties. Automakers then could consider sourcing part of their supplies from other parties. This strategy would not work in the short-term though, but could in the medium to long-term, as moving a product design to another manufacturer can easily take up between six months and a year, even to a factory already established. Increasing the production capacity while spreading the activities to various local regions seems the best way to avoid the market concentration that has been arguably the most important strategic factor causing the supply chain failures along with the pandemic.

A UNIQUE CASE

In a news article published a few days ago by various sources but not reported by major outlets, Mercedes would have announced that to reduce the impact of this shortage, upon requests, it will sell vehicles with reduced technical equipment at a lower price. As for ‘regular’ vehicles, the only option for clients right now is to wait for the arrival of the components needed.

If feasible, this would be an interesting decision to try and limit the damages of the crisis in the second half of 2021, the news, however, is not confirmed by the Mercedes Media website and other major automotive-related websites.

 

An Overview of the Top-End Luxury Automotive Market

  • Topic: Electric Vehicle Market, Strategy & Marketing

Last year, the automotive market was hit extremely hard by the pandemic. However, the luxury segment as many predicted proved to be more resilient and several companies managed to limit significantly the losses.

The first half of 2021 instead has been positive for all of the players in the segment with several reporting record sales and revenues. Especially Aston Martin and McLaren which went into 2020 already in a difficult phase have so far recovered significantly. The two British companies, registered respectively +224% and +90.4% in sales, and +242% and +110.5% in revenue. Other competitors, while reporting less eye-catching growth rates, mainly because they were all coming from much more stable situations, still reported important results:

· Bentley – Deliveries Volume 7,199 +46.4%, Revenues €1,324 mn +53.9%

· Lamborghini – Deliveries Volume 4,852 +36.8, Revenues €961 mn +25.6%

· Ferrari – Deliveries Volume 5,456 +32.2%, Revenues €2,046 mn +36.12%

· Porsche – Deliveries Volume 153,656 +31.4%, Revenues €16,530 mn +33%

Granted that countries do not incur new lockdowns and factories are not forced to shut down again, the risk for the industry right now comes from another factor. The chip shortage is affecting every technology-intensive industry and automotive is no exception. The relatively lower amount of supply required by low-volume manufacturers could shield these companies from delays, depending, of course, on the provisions.

As of now though, while the industry seems on track to full recovery, it is interesting to have a look back for an overview to have a more precise picture of where the industry is going.

SUVS POPULARITY AND OTHER MODELS

For quite a few years now, SUVs have been by far the most popular vehicle category, with sales constantly growing in every segment, and in all major automotive markets, especially in the biggest one, China.

In the luxury segment too, automakers and even low-volume manufacturers have adapted (or are adapting) to this trend. It was naturally more difficult for some with a long history with specific vehicle classes and a scarce product line, but eventually, even the likes of Aston Martin, and (soon) Ferrari, jumped on the bandwagon. Early adopters like Porsche have been doing it successfully for many years now, to the point where they consistently sell at least twice as many SUVs as all the other models combined every year.

car class*Include data from Aston Martin, Bentley, Ferrari, Lamborghini, McLaren, and Rolls-RoyceOf the three companies less affected by the pandemic, Bentley, Lamborghini, and Ferrari, the first two surely managed these results thanks to the continued success of Bentayga and Urus. In the case of other companies with worse results, SUVs helped to limit the damage. At Aston Martin over 1,500 DBX accounted almost for 50% of the total sales of 2020, most of which were due to aggressive de-stocking. Rolls-Royce’s Cullinan too partially saved the automakers year, with over 2,000 units delivered and just a 12% decrease while the rest of the range recorded a -40%.

The graphs show how in just five years, SUVs have already reached and slightly surpassed both GTs and Sports cars in the low-volume market.

The two graphs show also that differently from SUVs, other car classes in this segment peaked in 2018 and have been decreasing since. 2021, will surely be an improvement over 2020, but these models could take longer to just reach the 2019 levels.

Going a bit more in-depth, of the two categories, the sports cars are the ones that decreased the most, which could indicate another major trend. After all, most manufacturers are adding more practical models to their line-up to cater to clients who want the thrill of fast driving but still look for a car to be driven daily. Even the more focused one. McLaren launched its GT in 2019, and Lamborghini after the Urus, has confirmed that its fourth model will also be more practicality-oriented, perhaps a 4-door GT, and most likely full-electric.

ENGINE SIZES

When it comes to engines, apart from the fact that 2035 should see the definitive stop to any ICE car sales, environmental regulations have been already significantly affecting the sector for a while.

engine

In 2021, Ferrari and McLaren which up until now fitted their car only with V12 and V8 (McLaren uses only the V8), both released their new mid-engine hybrid pairing the electric system with a much smaller V6.

However, despite the overall drop in sales of last year, the ratio, in the last three years, remained pretty much unchanged. Where some automakers like Ferrari, McLaren, and eventually Aston Martin have already released smaller engines, others are more likely to directly shift to full-electric powertrains in the next few years.

It is the case of Rolls-Royce, according to its CEO Torsten Müller-Ötvös. Similarly, at Lamborghini, the big V12 is considered a defining characteristic of the brand itself. So while the automaker has already released its first hybrids (Siàn and new Countach), they kept the same engine in each one of the models. The next in line will most likely receive the same treatment. The rumoured fourth model instead will probably be all-electric, based on the same platform of the Taycan.

If automakers manage to abide by the restrictions with these alternative strategies, we might keep seeing big engines in sports and luxury cars for quite a few years yet.

MARKET SIZES

Another interesting fact is observed by looking at the overall market sizes within the three major regions of EMEA (Europe, Middle East, Africa), APAC (Asia Pacific), and Americas.

market size

All three regions have been growing steadily in the past years at a similar rate, with the Asian region getting only slightly closer to the other two. In 2020 however, with the pandemic as a major contributing factor, that ended up affecting more the US, than Asia, the sales of five companies (Aston Martin, Bentley, Ferrari, Lamborghini, McLaren) in the APAC region where for the first time, higher than those in the Americas.

Not all companies have the same reliance on Asian countries though. For instance, Ferrari, while selling a lot in China, relies more heavily on Europe and the US. Bentley on the other hand sold most of its cars in Asia last year. Nonetheless, after 2020, if this trend continues, it could give European low-volume manufacturers an additional reason to focus on Eastern markets.

One final ‘indirect’ observation, is that after looking at these data, 2021 will be even more interesting. It will certainly give an indication of how all of these aspects of the market are going to develop over the next few years with both the next generation of hybrid models coming to the market and the effect of the pandemic gradually disappearing.

Electrification and Autonomous Driving Approaches in Luxury Automotive

  • Topic: Electric Vehicle Market, Strategy & Marketing

In this important moment of transition for the automotive industry, luxury OEMs are, at different paces, moving toward vehicles electrification, autonomous driving, improved connectivity, and increasingly sophisticated ADAS.

There are substantial differences though in how all these areas of development are approached by the different automakers. This is something that, in the long-term, could reshape the industry and has partially done it already.

But what are these different strategies? And how are they changing the market?

ELECTRIFICATION

Electric vehicles are actually older than combustion engine ones. Nowadays, after a few marginally successful attempts that ultimately did not stick, Tesla, pushed by innovation and new environmental restrictions to ICEs, managed to establish the electric vehicle globally. From there other players, new or already well-established, set off in pursuit of the American firm as it continued growing in popularity and appeal especially with the new generations.

Naturally, the mass market, even in the premium segment (especially being Tesla positioned exactly in it), was impacted first. But the top-end luxury market is quickly following as well.

tesla model s plaid*The recently released Tesla Model S Plaid. Source: Tesla

The main reasons for the diverse product development progression in terms of pricing, range, and overall market positioning, are cultural. In the article EV Market Growth 3 Years Later: China and the rest of the world the table rounding up the 10 best selling EVs in China, the United States, and Europe proves exactly that. While in the US Tesla dominates the EV market with its premium cars, in Europe, the average price for one of these best-selling EVs drops by 22%. The difference is even larger in China where this average price decreases to £18,990 from the US’ £40,300.

Going back to the luxury segment, there have been three distinct approaches so far.

One is that of a quick, or direct entry in the EV market, either skipping completely the ICE and Hybrids or jumping directly to electrification from the combustion engine. The second is the gradual approach. That of companies that with the EV market approach, for different reasons could not shift right away to electrified models, so introduced hybrids for the first time, and only after moved (or are moving) to EVs. Finally, some companies are adopting a slow or more cautious strategy. This usually means that they might jump directly to electrification, but there is no time frame yet, which is the case (as it seems so far) for Pagani and Rolls-Royce. Or as it happens for Koenigsegg, even though the company is strongly identified by their use of cutting-edge technology, and has adopted hybrid powertrains for a while now, they do not have a clear plan (at least according to their communication) for a future full-electric vehicle.

Starting from these three distinct approaches to the entrance into the EV market, in the table below, three additional variables have been identified.

  • The first is each company’s age. They are divided into three subgroups: start-ups for companies that have been established less than 10 years ago, young for companies between 10 and 30 years old, and established for the ones with 30 plus years of activity.

  • The second variable is the EV model segment, indicating the class the automaker chose for its first EV, either GT, SUV, or Sports car (including Super and Hypercars).

  • The last factor considered is the pricing segment that distinguishes between premium and luxury positioning.

 

LUXURY AND PREMIUM AUTOMOTIVE COMPANIES EV MARKET ENTRY

companies table*Ferrari, McLaren, and Koenigsegg 'EV Model Segment’ column is left empty because while an upcoming EV is confirmed for the first two, the third is just a future option, and neither of the three firms released details on it.

From the table, some interesting market dynamics can be identified. First, established manufacturers always adopt either a gradual or slow strategy to enter the EV market. This is pretty straightforward. These companies have been improving on their core expertise for years, some even from the very beginning of the industry, over 100 years ago. This means that they will need to gradually redirect facilities, investments, capabilities, and staff, but they also have a heritage to preserve. This is especially true for luxury automakers for which the brand and the highly selected customer base expectations are crucially important as highlighted in the survey conducted for the Ferrari Brand Market Potential Analysis.

The only exception here is represented by Lotus, which out of its line-up of ICE sports cars, in 2019 introduced the full-electric hypercar Evija. Lotus as a brand exists since 1948, but in 2017 the Chinese Geely took a majority stake in the company, effectively taking control of it. Geely had already entered the EV market, with black cabs, and Volvo’s electric cars division Polestar. This overall direction for the group likely led to the birth of the project codenamed Type 130, later renamed Evija.

The second trend that can be observed is the vehicle’s class choice. All the established manufacturers using a gradual approach (which as said is almost every company featured) are entering the segment with a GT car or an SUV. This is most likely again due to clients’ expectations and cars’ value proposition.

GTs and SUVs are developed to be comfortable for long trips, exciting when required, yet relaxing to drive and simply be in. Few people in the market for a luxury or premium GT or SUV will be concerned with its driving capabilities on a track, which is exactly what sports cars are for instead. For this reason, so far we got the Porsche Taycan, the upcoming Maserati Granturismo, Lamborghini’s fourth model which will be an electric GT, the Audi E-Tron, the Mercedes EQC, and BMW iX3 (it is interesting the note that the latter three, followed up soon after with their own GT EV, the E-Tron GT, the EQS, and the i4 respectively).

taycan
granturismo
eqc
etron
ix3
taycan
granturismo
eqc
etron
ix3

Ferrari’s and McLaren’s upcoming electrified cars remain a mystery for now. So while it is possible to assume they too will release a GT model as their first electrified car, to preserve their driving experience with the combustion engine as long as possible, they could also pick a more radical approach for different reasons. Ferrari now enjoys the most diversified range it ever had (with the SUV Purosangue joining it soon), so an electric sports car would not be a substitute but more of an option to the combustion engine, for those clients that still look for a more traditional Ferrari driving experience. McLaren instead, being much more focused on sports cars, with no SUV and a single GT model, but a varied range of mid-engine supercars could choose to offer an electric option to these as well.

On the other hand, start-ups who entered directly the EV segment so far did it through top-end hypercars. High-performance cars in this segment are almost exclusively a prerogative of luxury automakers, while in the premium segment SUVs and GTs are preferred. Naturally, the use case for each car type makes the OEMs choice clear. It is the case of Rimac with the Concept One, Pininfarina with the Battista (based on the Rimac’s platform), Nio with the EP9, and Estrema with the recently presented Fulminea.

Not having the “constraints” of a large established customer base gives these companies the freedom to reinvent the product, and revolutionise the market itself even. They don’t need to respond to anyone’s expectations and for this reason, they can look for the next important step that allows them to establish themselves as serious players as it happened for Rimac and Tesla.

Christian Von Koenigsegg said it best in an interview when talking about its company:

“For example, with the Regera, I don’t see any of the other established brands, daring to remove shifting of gears. It’s such a fundamental thing to take away from a sports car, that I think it’s only Koenigsegg that could make that decision. And I’m very confident about the decision […] We take more freedoms like that”.

Most likely, in fact, the main reason why Koenigsegg has not yet started the development of a full-electric car is the powertrain constraints. One above all the weight. Apart from that, with every new model so far, they always introduced some form of unprecedented technological innovation.

These cars often become the weapons of choice of the start-ups as they are also extremely powerful testing platforms and marketing tools. A fast and ground-breaking supercar allows the OEM to test new and expensive technologies that the car’s pricing can cover. Technology that can later trickle down to mass-produced models, once the production costs drop. As for the marketing aspect, a high-performance vehicle will always attract more attention giving the company a reputation that a regular car would never give if the project is successful.

AUTONOMOUS DRIVING, CONNECTIVITY, AND ADAS

In a similar way to what happens for EVs, established and young companies are also likely to approach other aspects of the new automobiles’ development differently.

Start-ups often enter the market more as tech companies than automakers. Established brands, on the other hand, usually manage these developments through incremental improvements and implementations. The company structures themselves are likely to be less suited or lacking the talent for the latest tech development that is usually one of the EV start-ups’ strengths.

Specific areas of research are the further level of autonomous driving, constant OTA updates, improved tech hardware, a better ecosystem with personalised services for owners to increase brand loyalty, AR and VR, improved functionalities, and bespoke services through developed through sensors and camera systems.

autonomous driving

When it comes to autonomous driving, of course, a distinction must be done as well between everyday vehicles and sports cars. For the latter, autonomous driving capabilities would defeat the purpose of the vehicle itself, and not only while on track. So while there is less pressure for sports cars manufacturers, it is likely to see such automation on these cars too in the future.

On the other hand of the spectrum, however, as these capabilities become more complete and the systems popular, we are also likely to see companies born exclusively to produce self-driving vehicles. This not only represents a more radical approach, but much like EV OEMs such as Rimac and Tesla, it has the potential to threaten even more the current ownership model directing it even more toward a fully shared mobility.

AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES WILL TRAVEL ABOUT 66% OF TOTAL PASSENGER-KILOMETRES IN 2040

mckinsey projection

CONCLUSIONS

The industry is changing faster than ever, and the customers’ preferences are evolving as well. Younger generations are increasingly attracted by electric mobility and its unmatched performance capabilities. But they are also more open to sharing with others, and more interested in proper experiences over mere vehicle ownership.

This condition presents different challenges for both new and established players. On the one hand, long-standing companies can take advantage of their expertise in offering a more refined and bespoke service, along with the valued brand name. On the other, new players have the opportunity to try new and innovative approaches right from the start adopting solutions that might not be available for structured companies that are less agile and have more cumbersome processes. Not having the pressure of a long heritage and demanding customer base expectations can become an advantage too in this context.

EV Market Growth 3 years later: China and the rest of the world

  • Topic: Electric Vehicle Market, Strategy & Marketing

A while back, I wrote an article drawing the situation of the Chinese automotive market and trying to frame the buzz around the new energy vehicles growth in the world’s largest automotive market.

You can find it here.

The observation started from different media outlets discussing the rapid growth of Chinese automakers in the EV segment, while western companies were being left behind. The investments and specific development areas however gave back a different picture. Three years later, some trends have remained unchanged. The graph below expands the data gathered in the previous article about R&D spending by the different major manufacturers in Europe, the US, and Asia.

MAJOR AUTOMOTIVE GROUPS R&D INVESTMENT IN 2017 AND 2019-2020

rd spending*Source: Automakers’ financial reports

Despite the growth of major players in China that are even starting to approach foreign markets, European, Japanese, and American established companies are the ones still spending the most in this crucial phase of the industry. Naturally, the mere size here is the most important factor for this. At the top of the chart are in fact all the world’s largest groups, with VW still towering over the others. However, while the majority gradually increased their spending between 2017 and 2019, 2020 shows clearly the negative effects of the pandemic. Except for a few, every company reduced quite significantly the R&D spending.

Toyota is the major exception to this, growing very close to Daimler in terms of investment size in 2020. Chinese automakers too have either further increased their expenses or only reduced them slightly, which might be a consequence of China’s quicker return to full-time activity after the lockdowns, even if they all start from a much lower basis.

Naturally, the vast majority of such investments are going into ACES technologies (autonomous, connected, electric, shared). In the last two years, every major automaker released a revised business plan focusing its resources in this direction, like VW’s ‘New Auto’ strategy, or Daimler’s ‘Ambition2039’.

After all, the shift is happening faster than expected. A forecast by Meticulous Research reported by Bloomberg claims that the EV market is expected to reach a $2,495 billion size by 2027 at a CAGR of 33.6%. As for the sales figures, the CAGR would be 21.7% to reach by the same year a total of 233.9 million vehicles.

Another observation that could be significant is that the two major American automakers, Ford and GM both gradually decreased their investments in 2019 already, before the pandemic. This could indicate a more conservative approach, considering also that the automotive industry has been slowing down since 2017. 

GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE PRODUCTION (2014-2020)

production automotive*Source:OICA 

American companies slowing investments could also be the reason for a sluggish EV market development in the US, and for the dominance of Tesla in America. The major American competitor to Tesla in terms of sales right now in fact is the Chevrolet Bolt, which was only introduced at the end of 2016 and despite the lower price, is still far from the best-selling Model 3 and Model Y.

As for Ford, it released its first proper EV, the Mustang Mach E, only in the second half of 2020. And with a starting price of around $43,000 (£31,000), it will compete directly with Tesla’s new crossover Model Y. Reviews so far have been enthusiastic, and this first year will be crucial to see if the direction the company took is the right one.

mache*Photo byFord

 

THE CHINESE MARKET (VS THE REST OF THE WORLD)

As expected in 2020, more EVs were sold in China alone than in Europe (following more closely) or the US, accounting for almost 50% of the EV sales in the entire world.

Despite the differences at the provincial level, the government’s approach is changing.

In a notice of January 2021 (关于进一步完善新能源汽车推广应用财政补贴政策的通知》的解读), the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the People’s Republic of China, claimed that the subsidies that were supposed to be phased out in 2020, will be extended into 2022, and so far have promoted a partial recovery of the market with growth in the EV segment. But, a reduction of 10%(initially 20%), applied differently depending on the vehicle’s class and characteristics, will remain to try and consolidate the new energy vehicles’ market.

Also, back in 2019, for the first time, China allowed an automaker to enter its domestic market without a Joint-Venture with a local company. The first one was of course Tesla, that in the meantime established its Gigafactory in Shanghai and now leads the market with the Model 3. Despite this though, the Chinese Government ‘bet’ on its own industry seems to have paid. The fiercer competition surely helped the growth of the market, but much like in 2017, with the exception of the Model 3, Chinese automakers are still dominating their domestic market when it comes to EVs.

10 BEST-SELLING EVS IN 2020 BY MARKET (INCLUDING SALES VOLUME AND PRICE)

table*Prices are all converted into GBP (£)
*The prices indicated represent the entry-level trim for each car, which in many cases can vary significantly increasing the car’s performance or battery range offered.

Western companies maintained their Joint Ventures even if the policy relaxation has allowed for different market entry options. Executives said previously that it would seem too risky to approach the Chinese market alone. This might actually be advantageous, for two main reasons. First, with Chinese companies outselling them, the current situation represents an opportunity for foreign automakers to gain better insights into the consumers’ preferences, and have the backing of a local player in general. Secondly, as a proper hub for EVs development takes shape, western manufacturers that have numerous R&D centres in China can keep taking advantage of innovations, and knowledge spillovers.

The table of the 10 best-selling EVs in China, Europe, and the US paints an interesting picture. The trends are clearly quite different in the three regions. As mentioned earlier, in terms of sales China leads the way, followed by Europe, and third, comes the US distanced by quite a margin. Looking at the average price though, the order is the opposite. In America, Tesla is leading with all its 4 models which have a premium positioning, in the top 5, and right after, come also Audi E-Tron and Porsche Taycan, which both have similar pricing if not higher in certain configurations. Europe has more variety, with more automakers competing actively, and a wider choice of medium-range to up-scale or luxury models available.

China records a prevalence of small, cheap, electric city cars. The conclusion is not straightforward though, because in China other factors like the license for the car ownership, and the changing subsidies affect the purchase choices. Nonetheless, price sensitivity more than the battery range seems to play an important role there. Compared to the 2017 analysis also, appears a renewed interest for premium EVs, as not only Tesla Model 3, but high-end electric SUVs by Chinese brands, like Nio ES6 and Li Auto or LiXiang One (理想One)  appear on the list as well.

nio es6*Nio ES6 and its very unique AI Nomi. Photos byNio

The forecasts from a few years back that saw Chinese automakers outpacing western ones did not occur. Nonetheless, Chinese companies still dominate the domestic marketwith their unique offering. Whether is a small and incredibly cheap EV, or a luxury SUV with unique features, only Tesla with the Model 3 managed to outsell them. Overall, the EV market growth is consistent now. Despite the pandemic, companies invest with strategies focusing on ACES development, and each region presents different challenges and questions when it comes to customers’ preferences. For now, in fact, domestic automakers seem to have a clear advantage in each country over foreign ones. Maybe due to financial and tariff-related issues or familiarity, or because each brand interprets better the needs of “their own” customer base.

Rimac signs historic Strategic Joint Venture with Porsche to form Bugatti-Rimac

  • Brand: Bugatti, Porsche, Rimac
  • Topic: Electric Vehicle Market, Strategy & Marketing

On Monday, July 5th, 2021, Rimac Automobili held a live event during which were announced a series of changes at the corporate level that represent historic milestones for the young Croatian company.

Mate Rimac, on the stage, revealed the birth of Bugatti-Rimac, a strategic Joint Venture between his company, now the leader in the super sports electric vehicles, and the long-standing high-end French automotive brand part of the VW Group.

The discussion began around 18 months back, and after a while rumours started to spread on the internet about VW selling Bugatti to Rimac, and Porsche simultaneously acquiring a higher stake in the EV automaker.

There are not many details about what went on behind closed doors, but on Monday the result of this discussion was finally revealed. So, let’s have a look at what are the deal’s implications and why it is important in this moment of the luxury automotive market.

RIMAC’S NEW STRUCTURE

rimac share holder structure*SourceRimac Media

This is Rimac's updated corporate and shareholding structure as announced during the event.

From the top line, we can observe all of Rimac’s major shareholders, and there is no real surprise there. Mate maintains a 35% stake in his company, so does Porsche at 22% and Hyundai at 11%. The remaining 32% sees other automakers such as Kia, Chinese battery manufacturer Camel Group and more.

In the next row of the chart, things start to get more interesting. We see, in fact, the entity called Rimac Group now, where Rimac Automobili stood. The group then splits into two separate units that despite remaining distinct from one another, will maintain their synergies where necessary.

The first one is Rimac Technology. This division will remain completely under the Rimac Group, and independent. This is, in the words of its founder, the initial and biggest competitive advantage the company had and perfectly complementary to the automotive business.

He spoke frequently about how the technological know-how has been the real game-changer that allowed the company to flourish and establish itself as a major player in this market, before the car itself. Rimac’s current model Nevera, whose production is set to start in the coming weeks, is in fact, entirely produced in-house. This expertise in EV battery and drivetrain manufacturing, as well as software development its components’ management is what brought in the partnerships with Pininfarina, Aston Martin, Koenigsegg, and many more. Expertise that without the opportunity for economies of scale with these deals, would be extremely difficult to maintain with Rimac’s low production number.

Most importantly in this case though, this is also what initially captured the interest of Porsche and ultimately led to the present partnership.

On the other side of the graph appears the real news. Bugatti-Rimac. The Joint Venture between the two automakers should bring together the best of Bugatti’s century-old history and automotive heritage with Rimac’s unprecedented boost of innovation.

Bugatti Rimac Porsche cars*SourceRimac Media

 

The majority stake in Bugatti-Rimac will also stay under Rimac Group with 55%, the remaining 45% will be held by Porsche. Both the divisions then will be run by Mate Rimac himself, who stays as the CEO of Rimac Group. Porsche will have a role in the company support as an advisor.

The mission is clear. To bring Bugatti into its new century and secure its future, but it doesn’t end there. While both Rimac and Bugatti will keep producing their own hypercars, at their own headquarters near Zagreb, Croatia and Molsheim, France respectively (except for EV-related components for both brands that will be entirely developed and produced in Croatia), the strategic JV will combine the companies’ R&D efforts and other areas of development.

Being under Porsche, naturally, the German automaker will benefit as well from a consistent know-how and technology transfer that will help the development of future high-performance electric models.

WHY THIS JOINT VENTURE IS IMPORTANT

The shift toward electric mobility is happening faster than many predicted. The reasons are many, not just restrictive Governments’ environmental regulations. On the customers’ side, the novelty, performance, and features enabled by digitalisation, connectivity, and OTA updates have created a stronger appetite for electric vehicles and they are changing the customers’ preferences. According to a survey by McKinsey 45% of current car owners will consider buying an EV as their next vehicle.

mate rimac*Monday’s presentation participants. In order from the left, Oliver Blume, CEO of Porsche AG, Mate Rimac, Founder and CEO of Rimac, Lutz Meschke, Deputy Chairman and Member of the Executive Board Finance and IT at Porsche AG

An EY market research reported by Bloomberg, claims that by 2033 the EV market will be the dominant one. EV sales should outpace ICE car ones, by 2028 in Europe, 2033 in China, and 2036 in the US. Also, by 2045, their analysts predict that non-EV sales will account for less than 1% of the entire market.

This, even if in a different way, is happening in the luxury performance market as well.

A few days ago in Modena, Italy, home of some of the most iconic luxury automotive brands in the world, it was held theMotor Valley Fest. During the opening speech, McKinsey Senior Partner Gianluca Camplone reported some noteworthy forecasts.

When it comes to the luxury segment, the continued growth is ensured by a constantly increasing number of high-net-worth individuals, especially in the APAC region. Also, as discussed when addressing the transformation of Luxury and Super Sports cars into consumer electronics, with the difference in performance between brands and models flattening and the loss of that ‘emotional factor’ with the electric drivetrain, the differentiating factors and value proposition for each brand will have to change or at least expand, becoming more experiential.

Bugatti’s 100-plus-year long expertise and knowledge of its customer base will play an important role in this development and can definitely benefit Rimac too.

Most importantly though, the market analysis reported the growth forecast of the hypercar market and its shares by powertrains.

mckinsey chart*SourceMcKinsey

The graph highlights two important facts.

First is the overall growth of this segment, which signals a trend in the market where super-wealthy clients look increasingly for rarer products, as seen with the trend in one-off supercars which almost always exceed the pricing of the average hypercar.

Secondly, the fact that by 2025, over 60% of the entire segment will be represented by electrified models, divided in half between hybrids and full-electrics. This is the most important piece of information. In this context because it gives an image of a changing sector, even in the niche where up until a few years ago it seemed impossible to have a car without a gearbox and with a motor that does not make any sound.

In turn, it is easy to understand the benefits and the importance of the new Bugatti-Rimac JV, where the French automaker does not have synergies with other brands of the group like Lamborghini and Bentley have with Audi and Porsche, but still needs a change of pace when it comes to electrification. This partnership gives Bugatti access to world-leading high-performance electric technology. Additionally, both the brands pricing-wise are similarly positioned, differently from the other companies in the VW Group.

For now, it seems like the change will not be sudden for Bugatti anyway. The French automaker will also pass the hybrid intermediate step. But the backing of Rimac puts it in the best shape possible to go through this transition. As for Rimac, apart from the joint R&D efforts, the access to Bugatti’s experience in the sector, services, and CRM, will surely enjoy increased brand awareness and most of all reputation that will solidify even more its position as a world’s leader.

Will Luxury and Super Sports Cars become Consumer Electronics?

  • Topic: Electric Vehicle Market, Strategy & Marketing, Supercars Future

Even though Evs have been around for a while now, it's just in the last two years that every major automaker started a proper race to catch up with Tesla and possibly outrun the rest of the competition.

And while initial forecasts predicted that EVs would have taken a fairly long time to surpass ICE cars, by looking at the current market development, the story could be different. The main drivers of the change are the so-called ACES standing for autonomous driving, connectivity, electrification, and shared mobility. A sign of this drastic shift is the number of tech companies, involved mostly in software and consumer electronics development that are entering the space:

brands in ev market*Major names in the Tech world entering the Electric vehicle market

This is reflected in online communication as well. Social media personalities involved in technology are giving more and more attention to electric mobility as well. There is a convergence of interests for tech enthusiasts in EVs and automakers too are involving more influencers from this side of the market.

One above all, the recent partnership between Marques Brownlee (one of the most followed and respected YouTube personalities in the tech world) and Top Gear, for the review of electric vehicles. But there are many more.

youtuber*YouTube largest Tech Reviewers Video previews related to electric mobility and electric cars reviews

This indicates a clear change in the perception of a car's value. So, where does the car stop and the digital tool begin?

Consumers' preferences are changing, software and electronic integrations are gaining importance and automakers know that. In 2020, 40% of the average cost of a vehicle was spent on electronics, up from 2010's 27%, and is projected to reach 45% by 2030 (Deloitte). Also, according to McKinsey in this decade the automotive market will experience a CAGR of 7%, from $238 billion in 2020 to $469 in 2030, with Power Electronics, Integrations services, and software above it with a CAGR of 15%, 10%, and 9% respectively.  

The software side is becoming increasingly important in everyday use. This affects the luxury and performance automotive niche too where there has been a clear trend toward cars more suited for every-day use by every luxury and sports car manufacturer.

But it also represents a more substantial differentiation between super sports cars and pure luxury cars (or even lower segments for that matter). Luckily, for some manufacturers, the focus on the driving experience is something that plays more into the strengths and expertise they accumulated for decades, while digitisation, autonomous driving, and electrification are big equalisers, which lower the entry barriers for the huge number of start-ups coming to the market every day lately. In fact, among the companies developing connected services and cybersecurity, 44% have been established in the last 20 years, while those working with ADAS have grown by 38% in just ten years. The US and China thanks to their large investments and powerful tech industrial clusters account for the larger share of this industry respectively with 34 and 28%.

graph1*Data source: McKinsey - Tap the graph to Enlarge

RISKS FOR LUXURY AUTOMAKERS

This standardisation process can become an even bigger problem for premium and luxury automakers for obvious reasons. The increase in shared components, and especially electronics and software like it happens in big automotive groups could tarnish a brand's exclusivity.

In the lower market segment, someone that is avoiding this to a certain extent is Tesla. Not only creating every part in-house separates it from the rest of the market, but mostly having its own ecosystem does. Tesla has employed a strong vertical integration. Something that is not easy to replicate now that the EV market is already growing at a fast pace at least for high-volume automakers.

For low-volume productions, though this might be different. The example here is Rimac that has developed a similar strategyin the EV world. Ultimately this paired with its proprietary technology are the major characteristics that turned the Croatian company into the success it is today, at least from a technological standpoint (and likely in automotive too very soon). Among low-volume luxury automakers, Swedish Koenigsegg too adopts the same integration. As ACES level the playing field, higher integration, and in-house development could be the key for sustained and long-term brand strength.

rimac nevera interior*Rimac Nevera Interior. Source:Rimac Automobili

SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT

Standardisation will increase in software development as well. Much like it happened for computers and mobile technology, initially, every company developed its own system. However, as the industry consolidates, competitors are going to disappear and only a few (or very few) players will remain. In this context, tech companies and software developers such as Google, or Chinese giants Tencent for example will have a significant advantage over their automotive counterparts. Volvo and Geely subsidiary Polestar has already done that step integrating Google infotainment and OS.

Also due to the increasing complexity and need for cross-system integrations, automakers will have to establish special partnerships with Software developers to implement these systems properly (McKinsey). This would give the suppliers higher bargaining power, and the standardisation of software could become an issue for luxury automakers that need to distinguish themselves and the driving experience offered from that of others.

WHAT ABOUT SPORTS CARS

Regarding sports cars and super sports cars, with the focus remaining on the driving experience, most ACES factors are likely to have less of an impact on the segment. But not all. Electrification in fact is already having a big impact on the industry and on new generations of potential clients. Performances that already reached small incremental improvements in the last years are making a significant jump with electrification (at least in some contexts) and could soon reach a limit, if not of what is physically possible, at least the limit for what the average human being can handle. While the top-of-the-line ICE super sports cars and hybrids reached accelerations varying between 2.8 and 2.5 seconds from 0 to 100 km/h (0-62 mph), it is not uncommon to see super electric vehicles claimed acceleration market below 2 seconds.

car acceleration speed*Speed expressed in seconds

Again, Rimac made the headlines a few days ago with the release of the production-ready version of its C_Two, now called Nevera, clocking record acceleration speeds with 0-62 in 2 seconds or less, and a quarter-mile in less than 9 seconds.

As of now, the instant torque and excessive straight-line speed of electric vehicles represent a novelty. But this kind of competition is not likely to last. Due to the (relative) ease with which automakers achieve such stunning performance numbers with EVs, the competition will either go onto something more complex, like a full lap time (something that already happens among long-standing automakers) or simply lose its appeal. If this happens, we will see the competition transforming into something completely new.

The change is happening extremely fast. Autonomous driving, connectivity, electrification, and shared mobility are transforming the automotive industry for good. Cars will increasingly become consumer electronics. But where does this leave the luxury and performance niches?

These companies will have to come up with strategies to differentiate themselves against the overall standardisation that seems to be developing. This will have to include the vehicles’ value proposition, whether it is the driving experience, the performance, or the luxury.

While some core strengths of these traditional OEMs might lose importance, others should stay. Additionally, the higher technological and digital integrations offer also relevant opportunities. Automakers have the chance to create more comprehensive, involving, and seamless ecosystems to attract customers and improve brand loyalty. Connectivity and software development offer countless possibilities to create services, build communities and a sense of belonging, making the car ownership an experience more than ever before.

Automobili Estrema: An Interview with Founder & CEO Gianfranco Pizzuto

  • Topic: Electric Vehicle Market, Interview, Supercars Future

Just a few days ago we witnessed the presentation of an exciting new project in the luxury automotive landscape. The fully electric hypercar Fulminea, already teased a few months back by Automobili Estrema, a new company established near Modena at the heart of the Italian Motor Valley. This week I had the pleasure to interview its Founder and CEO, Gianfranco Pizzuto.

Mr. Pizzuto is a pioneer in the field of electric mobility, and through his years of experience in this industry, he focused his attention on sustainability and the huge potential that comes with this automotive revolution.

We touched on many topics, including its past experience as an entrepreneur in electric mobility with the investment in Fisker, in an EV sector still in its infancy only a little over 10 years ago, the current development stage of Fulminea, and the vision for the future of the company. And there is a lot to be excited about! 

Here is the video of the interview and below you can find some more information about the car, the event, and the company’s future.

But now a little bit of background…

THE FULMINEA PRESENTATION

The event was focused on the presentation of the first full-scale model of the car, its styling, aesthetic, and aerodynamic solutions. The design already shows quite evidently the forward-looking approach used by the team at Automobili Estrema.

Not only the futuristic lines recalling the lightning-shaped company logo, as the headlights to create a stronger personality, but also the taillights which are the first of their kind. Estrema designers in fact used clear recycled methacrylate that works as a projector for the LED lights creating a unique aesthetic solution and also an aerodynamic feature.

Stand out of course also the massive use of carbon fibre, which includes even the wheels (developed by partner OZ Racing), the active aerodynamic elements, and finally some lines in the overall shape of the car that take inspiration from the best Italian automotive design tradition.

fulminea-back-3-4
fulminea-back-fin
estrema-fulminea-back
fulminea-back-3-4
fulminea-back-fin
estrema-fulminea-back

This way, the team at Automobili Estrema enters a very crowded and highly competitive space bringing a product that makes of technological innovation and striking design its most powerful weapons, while also reiterating its heritage rooted in the classic cues of Italian sports car manufacturing.

But there is more…

NOT JUST NUMBERS

Fulminea will be an almost €2 million hypercar, and as such is conceived to deliver hypercar-worthy performances. It will have a power output of 2040 bhp, a weight of 1500 kg, and an expected 0-62 mph (0-100 km/h) around 2 seconds. Even more impressive is the claimed acceleration from 0 to 200 mph (320 km/h) below 10 seconds.

Despite all of this, however, Estrema COO Roberto Olivo confirmed that this is not the kind of number the team is interested in. Of course, a performance matching the price point, and the kind of product is expected, but racing for the hundreds of a second in the 0-60 time is not what they are after.

fulminea-3-4
fulminea-front
headlights-fulminea
fulminea-3-4
fulminea-front
headlights-fulminea

Fulminea can in fact boast a much more ambitious set of objectives.

The first is to be the first car with a hybrid battery system. Meaning that along with the battery pack, the car will feature additional ultracapacitors, to further improve its performance. The synergy between the two should ensure reduced stress on the ‘regular’ battery pack, for increased range as well.

A Battery management system operated through AI which will adapt the performance to the outside conditions and the driving style of the person behind the wheel.

Finally, its battery pack will consist of solid-state lithium-ion cells, a solution that presents countless advantages over regular lithium-ion batteries with liquid electrolytes. Not only in terms of energy density (claimed around 450 Wh/kg), but also space and weight-saving, safety, and charge/discharge cycles.

This should ensure significantly better performance over other cars within this niche thanks to better range and reliability but most of all thanks to better dynamics.

THE FUTURE OF ESTREMA

Estrema has already formed strategic partnerships and joint ventures with different companies for the development of Fulminea and future projects.

Along with the design and exterior elements developed with EPTA Design, OZ Racing, Est Mobile, Pirelli, and more, the partnerships with companies in the energy storage development could lead to much more.

oz pirelli

Estrema’s work with IMECAR Elektronik and ABEE (Avesta Battery and Energy Engineering) is aimed at creating, after the car, the first Gigafactory in Italy (and arguably one of the first in the World, even a few years down the line) for solid-state battery cells.

Ultimately, this would realise Mr. Pizzuto’s vision of establishing Estrema not only as a car manufacturer but as a leader in innovation and a technology company. This concept cannot but remind me of a claim made a while back by Mate Rimac, another great innovator in the automotive of our days, that already established his name as a major player in this newborn space. He talked about at Rimac they were forced to be a technology company first in order to survive and be a car company too.

Technology and innovation to exploit the massive potential of an electric powertrain to the maximum are surely key factors for new players who cannot rely on a long-standing brand name. Automotive is a tough arena to compete in, but in this respect, Automobili Estrema seems geared up very well for it. The people, the project, and the vision are in place, now time will tell.

How Luxury Automotive Design is Changing Today

  • Topic: Electric Vehicle Market, Strategy & Marketing, Supercars Future

When a new car is unveiled, the first characteristic we appreciate is its design. It is our first point of contact with a car. The aesthetics language always carries the signature of a well-known Chief Designer who gives the direction and heads an increasingly large team. Because like in many other aspects of luxury automotive, the design too gets more and more complex for a number of reasons. It is mainly due to the higher competition and expectations by the clients not only on the exterior design but on the interior too. Then, of course, there is fine-tuning beauty and engineering performance.

Very emblematic in this respect is a quote from Klaus Busse, Vice President of Design for Fiat, Abarth, Lancia, Alfa Romeo, and Maserati, who highlights how on the newly released MC20 even the chromatic choices distinguish these two sides of a supercar development:

“[the front grill] brings together the design philosophy of the very clean, hand-sculpted upper of the car, with the very much computer-designed, purely functional, almost raw engineering low of the car, bringing these two worlds together. Beautiful sculpture but also performance-oriented engineering”

sketches automotive

This characteristic, even with vehicles becoming more and more complex, has always been there to fulfil the need for improved capabilities. Last but not least come different cultures, changing technology, which is truly relevant now, with the integration of digital instruments, and new car ownership patterns (this last one highly unlikely to affect the luxury niche).

But let’s back up a bit and have a look at the major change in the process compared to previous generations. How do customers have a major influence on luxury automotive manufacturers?

CUSTOMERS’ BARGAINING POWER

Even if it sounds complicated enough already, there’s more, especially when it comes to catering to a restricted group of extremely demanding clients. In Porter’s Five Forces framework, the buyers have particularly strong bargaining power for various reasons. First of all, because they are a highly limited pool of people. Secondly, because a high percentage of these clients own a considerable number of vehicles relative to the total output of every manufacturer as shown by the results of my survey in the graph below. The exceptionally wealthy ones may even become collectors, owning up to 10 or more cars. One example is the one who accepted to release an interview with me on a previous occasion.

PORTER FIVE FORCES FRAMEWORK

porter 5 forces

RESPONDENTS OWNING SINGLE VS MULTIPLE CARS

graph single multiple owners

Third, Customers’ power might even increase due to the current changes in automotive. While the industry is quite consolidated around a few companies, the overall size of this market is relatively small too. So, in addition to the current alternatives, with established automakers moving toward electrification there are numerous start-ups entering the market. Thus, the available choices increase, even if with brands that have less strength.

Again, the survey conducted among luxury and supercar owners, Design, on a scale from 1 to 10, is rated on average as the most important factor affecting their purchase decision. 

FACTORS AFFECTING THE LUXURY CAR OWNERS PURCHASE DECISION (RATED 1-10)

lkdn graph

Brand loyalty is one of the major instruments for OEMs to limit the Buyers’ Bargaining Power. So, the way for automakers to increase that loyalty (among several others), particularly from the most valued ones, is to involve them in the design process, to assess trends and preferences.

A NEW DESIGN PROCESS

Quite often OEMs turn to third-party companies to carry out this kind of work. Specialised research firms apply a range of research methods, such as surveys, focus groups, and others, even presenting, at times, sketches, 3d or clay models in the early stages of development to get feedback.

However, I was surprised to learn the extent of this involvement. I recently talked with a professional who has been working in the industry in Italy for nearly 10 years. According to his experience, a selected group of important clients, whose number might vary from company to company depending on the overall customer base volume, can affect up to 40/50% of the whole design process.

He affirmed that this trend has only emerged quite recently but has been increasing since. After all, as proven by the rapid growth in personalisation and bespoke programs, as well as the one-off developments which represent the ultimate instance of clients working and influencing a car’s design, the luxury automotive sector is increasingly customer-centric. So, while we think about these authoritative brands as trendsetters, which is still true to some extent, that might often not be 100% accurate when it comes to luxury automotive design.

lamborghini sc20 oneoff*One-off Lamborghini SC20. Source:Lamborghini Media

When a new model is revealed, we should keep in mind that most likely behind the pen of a lead designer and his/her team’s work, there is actually a significant influence from a restricted group of clients.

THE POWER OF DESIGN

Industrial design is a powerful tool to strengthen brand identity, create exclusivity, and even influence an entire market’s direction (if the company is strong enough). The easiest example that comes to mind outside of the automotive sector, is Apple. Multiple times, in the last 30 years through the influence and significance of design, the American company has effectively redefined the concepts of computing (starting with the 90s coloured iMac, and successively with MacBook and so on), entertainment (iPod, iPad, and mobile technology (iPhone).

The most striking changes however happened when said company presented something completely new to the world. Design in certain industries and luxury automotive is one, can become one the most important intangible assets a company has.

So, can handing over that much control to the clients eventually become a risk for OEMs? Can it make them lose their edge?

To some, it can. In an interview with Top Gear Motoring journalist Chris Harris expressed his opinion on a topic that is very relatable to this one by saying:

What's changed is that a lot of car companies are now making cars for customers. They say: “we think this is what they want”. Where the great car designs came about through stubborn idiosyncratic designers who went with an idea because they thought it was a great idea. When designers and engineers are allowed free rein to express the madness inside their heads, you get the Mini, you get the Renault Scénic, you get the Espace, you get vehicles that change the way that you interact with cars.

A sign of this trend, whether one considers it positive, negative, or simply necessary to maintain and improve sales numbers, is the search for the ‘everyday supercar’ that many automakers have been carrying out for a while now and resulted in SUVs, GTs, and estate (or shooting brake) cars. Something that in the past concerned almost exclusively the mass-production car market. 

EVERYDAY USE LUXURY CARS (GTS, SUVS, ESTATE CARS) RELEASED BETWEEN 2000 AND 2021 BY AUTOMAKER

graph gts and estate

As mentioned initially, a number of other new factors affect certain design-related decisions in modern days. However, while they can become prominent for generalist brands, they are less likely to affect luxury automotive designers’ choices, or they are simply dictated by the industry evolution.

It is the case of new hybrid or electric powertrains that affect the interior design due to different spaces and volumes, as well as the exterior for the necessity to achieve lower drag coefficients and higher efficiency.

Another is the cultural difference. Being the largest automotive market in the world makes China extremely appealing for any automaker, even if for the majority of marques in the luxury niche the US is still the largest. Several companies had to develop specific vehicles with a longer wheelbase just to accommodate the preferences within this market.

To conclude, with the growing importance of a customer-centric luxury, it seems likely that certain design decisions in the future, will still be heavily influenced by clients’ preferences. However, if this is the direction, the concern remains over a potential lack of freedomwhich in the past allowed some iconic models that literally defined their own era, to see the light. Also, by becoming too dependant on generational aesthetic trends, the risk is to lose, in new models, the timelessness that characterised some cars from the past that we still admire today.

Marketing Racing #8: Porsche Taycan Marketing and its Records

  • Brand: Porsche
  • Topic: Electric Vehicle Market, Marketing Racing, Strategy & Marketing

The Porsche Taycan has been a big deal for the industry since its first appearance as a concept under the name Mission E. It was the first long-standing established luxury manufacturer to start the production of an electric vehicle, which is something that very few do even today.

During its first year, Taycan has been a commercial success too, selling 20,015 units. It prominently entered Porsche’s lineup, exceeding the Boxster/Cayman 19,263 sales of 2019, which was a year of general strong growth. Additionally, as of today, outside of China, EVs have been mainly sold in the premium segment of the market. Mostly due to battery pack costs and customer habits.

For a while now, China’s customers, in fact, have seemed to be less concerned with maximum range and tend to favour more affordable cars instead, to move mainly in the city as highlighted in the Chinese Market Research.

PRICE OF THE BEST-SELLING EV MODELS IN CHINA AND EU-US IN 2017

China VS Eu US Evs*Source: 搜狐 Sohu, 2017 年纯电动乘用车销量前十名车型品牌, European Alternative Fuels Observatory *prices in the brackets are after incentives

In western countries instead, the range is generally considered one of the most important features for EVs and one of the main stages of competition between companies. And the trend is still partially unchanged, but with signs of balancing. Especially with the popularity of Tesla’s Model 3 in the EU and US. Tesla so far has been the dominant player in the premium-luxury EV segment. At least until Porsche’s entry.

2020 MAIN PREMIUM EV MODEL SALES

lkdn graph*Tesla reports Model S and Model X sales figures together
**Audi data accounting only for the first 9 months of the year
***New Data for Mercedes EVs coming on February 18th

Along with the good results shown in this graph, there are two important factors to keep in mind. The first is that except in its base version, Taycan is generally much more expensive than the competitors listed here (the new Tesla Model S and X Plaid come closer to it). Secondly, Model X, Audi E-Tron, and I-Pace are all in the small SUV or Crossover segment which is definitely more sought after these days. These two factors make the Taycan results even more impressive and more interesting the potential for the upcoming Cross Turismo.

This scenario is likely to change significantly in 2021 as a number of high-profile competitors have entered the market in mid to late 2020. Polestar 2, BMW iX3, Ford Mustang Mach-E to name a few.

Determined the Taycan noteworthy success, even within a competitive segment that is not the most popular nowadays, let’s have a look at how Porsche achieved this success. What kind of campaigns did Porsche employ for its first EV Promotion?

MODERN ONLINE MARKETING

Taycan like many other luxury vehicles, especially during 2020 with lockdowns and restrictions got a lot of visibility thanks to online reviews and driving tests. Since its release, in fact, it made the first page of pretty much every automotive social media outlet, not only for the novelty of being an electric Porsche but thanks to its characteristics. From the overall build quality far superior to that of its competitors to its driving capabilities.

Chris Harris, like others, in his review points out how the car driving dynamic and agility is superior to other electric vehicles and actually extremely close to the one in a regular Porsche ICE Sportscar despite its considerable weight.

Additionally, a consequence of the interest in the new drivetrain and technology started by Tesla’s success is that Taycan too caught the attention of a new audience that does not necessarily overlap with that of car enthusiasts. EVs have in fact grown in popularity among the tech fans community. Satisfying the needs and wishes of this new (and generally very young) audience can benefit Porsche by bringing in new potential clients and increasing brand loyalty.

These are crucial components of modern marketing for any luxury car. In the case of the Taycan though, there is more…

SOME UNIQUE MARKETING

I previously discussed the success of The Heist, the second most-viewed automotive video on YouTube, and a great example of the power of storytelling in automotive marketing that many other automakers are following. This is already quite a unique achievement and a display opportunity for Porsche.

The second one-of-a-kind initiative to promote Taycan has been realised in Seoul on the occasion of its launch in Korea. The show itself featured an extraordinary light show symbolising the futuristic look and technology employed for this car. What is even more surprising though, is that in the days leading up to the event, a lorry carried around through the city an installation with a 3D Hologram representing running horses. The idea comes from the name of the car which according to Porsche ‘can be roughly translated to mean soul of a spirited young horse’.

taycan-korea-horses
taycan-korea-horses-1
taycan-korea
taycan-korea-horses
taycan-korea-horses-1
taycan-korea

*Source:Porsche

While very impressive, this is not the last unusual campaign organised by Porsche to push the EV to maximum visibility. So here comes the Guinness World Records.

On two separate occasions, Taycan achieved World Records for the longest drift with an electric vehicle and the highest indoor vehicle speed.

On the first, driving instructor Dennis Retera completed 210 laps of a 200 metres circle, for a total of 42,171 Kilometres covered in 55 minutes. This specific record served also to showcase the potential of the rear-wheel-drive Taycan, produced exactly to enhance the fun and feeling of a true sportscar.

taycam-drift-1
circle
taycan-drift
taycam-drift-1
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taycan-drift

*Source:Porsche

The second record instead was set by racing driver Leh Keen reaching a top speed of 165.1 Km/h in an enclosed building. This time the AWD Taycan was used to maximise grip, acceleration, and crucially, deceleration, as the space available was limited by the Guinness World Record rules.

This was an important showcase of top performance. Complete trust in the vehicle’s capabilities on a tricky slick surface, allowed the driver to achieve the record on the first attempt.

taycan-acceleration
taycan-decelrating
taycan-indoor
taycan-acceleration
taycan-decelrating
taycan-indoor

*Source:Porsche

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS

Even though from an everyday performance perspective these achievements might not seem to mean much, this is different for car enthusiasts and will likely prove to be a smart move. Proving that a good electric sportscar is more than just straight-line speed, might help to convince current luxury performance car buyers that generally meet EVs with a certain scepticism.

If all the rest was not enough, this will at least be another way to record the Taycan on the history pages.

Automotive Industry’s Health in 2020 so far

  • Topic: Electric Vehicle Market, Finance

International Organisation of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers President Mr. Fu Bingfeng, elected at the end of 2019 to substitute Mr. Christian Peugeot, has commented on the current condition of the global automotive industry. The press release can be summarised into two main statements:

"While the situation is improving or even seems well controlled in many countries, much remains to be done. [...] At this critical moment, we must all work to turn the crisis into a new opportunity. We can seize this opportunity to work together and to foster a better ‘new normal’ going forward."

A couple of months later, some figures put the claims in a clearer perspective. 

SALES/REGISTRATIONS OF NEW VEHICLES IN COUNTRIES REPRESENTED IN OICA BY MONTH (2019-2020)

garph lines*Source: International Organisation of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers

Some trends in sales are observable in the first 5 months of the year, even with the strong influence of COVID-19. The increase in sales in March 2020 is likely due to China gradual reopening as the Western World went into lockdown.

Also, it is evident the general faster recovery from April through June. With the nadir reached in March when the industry registered a -39% compared with 2019, following with the -38% of April up to just -3% of July. The data could indicate various encouraging factors that created this figure, especially when considering that in most countries the production capacity has not yet reached the Pre-Pandemic levels. For instance, people’s finances could have been affected less seriously than expected, so the virus outbreak just delayed their purchase decision, or due to the lockdown, some might have saved more money which allowed the investment in a new vehicle. However, by the end of 2020, the Global demand is expected to decrease by 21% compared to the previous year.

On the commercial side, the reopening has likely meant the renovation of commercial or public fleets. August though, has seen again a slight drop to -5%, which could be caused by what globally looks like the second wave of virus contagion.

Michael Manley, FCA CEO and European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association President (ACEA) in a recent press release highlighted the production loss of 3.6 million vehicles in Europe in the first half of 2020, which translates into a 20% of the total production.

This discrepancy has increased in the third quarter to slightly over 4 million vehicles, accounting for 22.3% of 2019 European production. And projections are not optimistic as the total loss is expected to reach 25% by the end of the year.

The global decrease in sales reflects the European average. Sales between January and August 2020 have slowed by 20.5% compared to 2019.

SALES/REGISTRATION OF NEW VEHICLES FROM JANUARY TO AUGUST 2019-2020 BY COUNTRY, AND YOY PERCENTAGE VARIATION

2019 2020 by country

usa china 2019 2020*China and US data separated from other Countries’ for clarity purposes
**Source: OICA

Almost all the countries members of OICA registered negative results so far in 2020 except for Kazakhstan, Korea, and Turkey.

The last month of Q3 though seems to have brought some relief to some major markets. While not all the national associations have already released official numbers for September, many that have, published positive reports. Germany registered a +8% in new cars registration, Italy +9.5%, Korea improved on its trend with +23.2%, US +6.4% to name a few. Others presented negative data but with a less serious outlook, for instance, France with a -3%, or the UK with a -4.4%, coming mainly from the Business segment which is the smallest, while the private and fleet segments registered only -1.1% and -5.8% respectively.  

STRINGENT ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATION

mike manley*FCA CEO and ACEA President Michael Manley

At the same time, a major factor affecting the industry is also the transition toward green technology. Automotive manufacturers are under pressure by stricter emission regulations.

According to Manley, a large share of the annual industry R&D investment amounting to €60.9 billion has been spent in innovation toward electrification and carbon emissions reduction. The proper recovery of the sector, along with the achievement of the target decarbonisation thus require the cooperation of governments. Also, the fast development of charging infrastructures is required since the adoption rate is still uncertain and the technology premium over the traditional ICE powertrain is still consistent. Even Bill Gates in a recent interview mentioned how the exceptional industry’s effort to move toward a greener future is unmatched when compared to numerous other industries.

OUTLOOK FOR THE END OF 2020

Despite some recovery observed in September, analysts from various national and international entities expect further slowdown in the last quarter of the year.

It appears like the way to reach the level where the industry was when everything stopped at the beginning of 2020 is still long, but the path is the right one. Even now, with fast-rising numbers of people infected by COVID-19, the world has somehow adjusted and put numerous measures in place, so, it seems unlikely to imagine another crisis as serious as the one the industry went through. With this in mind, as the production picks up and gradually reaches the previous levels companies that are not too damaged already should be able to continue their activity.

For some, the future looks uncertain. Especially in the luxury segment, there have been several major restructuring and layoffs. Many companies are striving to improve cost-efficiency in every aspect possible, not just to cope with the virus aftermath but to prepare for the environmental challenge.

Governments, in fact, will also play an important and interesting role in the stimulation of the electric vehicles market. Incentives could be a double-edged sword if not planned and handled properly as it happened in China (for reference check the articles China Automotive Market: Real Openness or Concealed Protectionism? or the research section regarding the Chinese Automotive Market). But as the virus caused a sales €122 billion loss in Europe so far and is still considered the biggest threat to the industry, ACEA calls for National COVID support to be employed to stimulate demand for NEV, which will help EU automotive companies’ recovery and in turn the Continent economic restoration too.

Implications of VW selling Bugatti to Rimac

  • Brand: Bentley, Bugatti, Lamborghini, Rimac
  • Topic: Electric Vehicle Market, Strategy & Marketing

A couple of weeks back, the news spread about Volkswagen’s intention to sell its top luxury low-volume automaker, Bugatti. What is more surprising is that Croatian EV automaker and tech supplier Rimac has been quoted among the interested parties in the purchase. As many by now suggested though, considering Porsche’s interest in Rimac, the move seems definitely less unexpected.

bugatti rimac vw cover

So, is VW just getting rid of the automaker or accelerating its transition into electrification, or they have other reasons (financial difficulties after the crisis)? Is the same going to happen to Lamborghini and Bentley, the other luxury manufacturers under the VW umbrella?  

SOME BACKGROUND ON BUGATTI

With regard to Volkswagen Group’s expansion in the luxury segment, its most important year is 1998. It is in 98 in fact, that with Ferdinand Piëch and his aggressive expansion strategy VW completed the acquisition of Bugatti, Rolls-Royce Bentley, and Lamborghini. You can check the article How VW turned Lamborghini into the success it is today? to know more about the latter.

Later, after a few concepts commissioned to Giugiaro at Italdesign, in 2005 the company finally began the delivery of its first production model, the Veyron 16.4. After that, the Chiron followed in 2016, and various limited editions, such as Grand Sport, Super Sport, and Pur Sport.

BUGATTI SALES FIGURES (2005-2019)

graph

In 2019, the company closed with an estimated €253.57 million revenue (Dun&Bradstreet) and a record sales of 82 vehicles. The sales graph shows mainly the lifecycle (so far) of their two main models, Veyron, and the successor Chiron. In the last two years also, the company attracted, even more, the attention of professionals and enthusiasts’ community with the release of the £4.5 million Divo, the £9 million Centodieci, and the £12 million one-off La Voiture Noire, respectively planned for 40, 10 and 1 units.

WHAT ABOUT VW’S DECISION?

Bugatti’s parent company and owner of numerous other major automotive brands, Volkswagen Group has recently gone under a radical management restructuring. Herbert Diess current group CEO, recently replaced as VW brand CEO by Ralf Brandstaetter, has been at the forefront of the efforts to cut costs, especially in these difficult times, to free resources and allow a fast transition to large-scale electrification. In the first half of 2020, VW Group with a 23% drop in sales, has so far reported a pre-tax loss of €1.4 billion.

According to some reports then, selling the luxury marque would be part of this cost-cutting strategy by the German automaker. But because Bugatti’s acquisition was strongly wanted by Ferdinand Piëch, it would not be possible for VW to just sell the marque.

ferdinand piechFerdinand Piëch *Source: Wikipedia 

Especially considering that over 50% of the group is controlled by the Holding Porsche SE, whose 50% is owned by the Porsche-Piëch family at 50%, who however retains 100% of the voting rights.

herbert diessHerbert Diess *Source:Volkswagen Media©

At the same time, Rimac, the Croatian firm leading the luxury performance electric vehicle niche, has become a major player, thanks to its know-how, collecting numerous partnerships and investments. You can read more about it here Nico Rosberg enters the Rimac Family: Rimac Business Model.

So, in the described plan, Porsche that acquired a 15.5% stake in Rimac in two years, would increase it up to 49% while the EV manufacturer would buy the Bugatti brand which would effectively remain, at least partially under the VW Group. Naturally, this process would need the approval of other important stakeholders such as the Chinese Camel Group that owns a 14% stake.

SOME OBSERVATION

To answer the first question at the beginning of the article, this exchange would not only allow VW to save costs and focus its resources on mass-produced electric cars but would also grant Bugatti a faster transition toward electrification thanks to Rimac.

chiron
divo
lavoiturenoire
chiron
divo
lavoiturenoire

At the same time, the Croatian manufacturer, who despite the blazing success has so far produced a very low volume of cars, could benefit from Bugatti’s expertise. Considering the differences in values and characteristics between the two brands they would also not risk cannibalising their extremely limited sales.

As for the other companies, Lamborghini, Bentley, Ducati, even the design company Italdesign would all be under scrutiny. However, regarding luxury automotive brands Lamborghini and Bentley, there are three reasons that put these two brands in a stronger and more integrated position compared to Bugatti.

First, both Bentley and Lamborghini share important components of their SUVs, luxury, and sports cars with other VW Group brands. Bentayga and Urus share VW’s MLB Evo modular platform (Modularer Längsbaukasten, German for Modular Longitudinal Matrix) with Audi’s Q and A product lines, VW Touareg and Porsche Cayenne. As for the engines, Urus, Bentayga, Continental GT, and Flying Spur share the 4.0 Litres V8 engine with Porsche and Audi. Additionally, Lamborghini also shares with Audi the 5.2L V10that was mounted in a late version of the Gallardo and on the Huracàn. All these factors not only translate into a significant cost reduction but are even more significant when considering the highest profit margin on each of these cars and the current market trend. The two companies’ SUVs are in fact by far their best-selling models. In both cases, they account for around 50% of the total sales or more.

huracan-evo
flying-spur
continental-gt
2021-bentayga
urus
huracan-evo
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*Source:Bentley Media© &Lamborghini Media©

Secondly, both Lamborghini and Bentley look ahead of Bugatti in terms of electric technology integration and development. Both have shown concepts of full-electric cars, Terzo Millennio and EXP 100 GT respectively. They also all have already developed hybrid platforms, Lamborghini with the Siàn and Bentley with the Bentayga. Additionally, Bentley can boast already a well laid-out development plan to reduce emissions and develop a greener product lineup with the Beyond100 Strategy. Check Bentley H1 Results and Beyond100 Business Strategy to know more.

Third, both have been performing significantly well in the past few years in terms of sales numbers becoming leaders in their segments, with only Ferrari coming close. This holds true even in 2020. Especially compared with the rest of the industry. In the first half of 2020, Bentley even registered a 2.8% increase in deliveries, while Lamborghini’s -22.1% is still way smaller than that of its direct competitors.

All in all, if this transaction happens, even if many enthusiasts might feel sad at the idea of Bugatti turning electric (which will have to happen anyway eventually), who better than Rimac can bring it into this new automotive era? As for the other two luxury automotive brands, as of now, it seems highly unlikely to see VW deciding to sell them.

Porsche EV Development Strategy

  • Brand: Porsche
  • Topic: Electric Vehicle Market, Strategy & Marketing

Porsche is boldly embracing the future of automotive with electrification in its Strategy 2025 plan. Like more and more manufacturers are doing, it has already declared that future models of its lineup will be full-electric. When it comes to sports cars or supercars manufacturers this transition is more cautious and gradual. As of now though, after the release of its first full-electric car, the Porsche Taycan, the German automaker has two more upcoming models for the EV market. The 2021 Taycan Cross Turismo, and the 2022 Macan. There is an important distinction to be made though. While the first, being a derivative of the smaller sister, will be only electric, the SUV will be offered with different powertrains. Most likely in all three ICE, Hybrid, and full-electric versions.

strategy 2025

Why Porsche went for the Taycan as their first model in the EV segment? Why are they planning on offering other models only as EVs while others will have different platforms options?

THE FIRST ELECTRIC PORSCHE

The long-rumoured Porsche Taycan EV, first called Mission E, has lived up to the expectations receiving worldwide praise. Porsche is still mostly famous for its sportscar thanks to which it earns most of its reputation both on the streets and on the racetrack. As for the sales figures instead, the SUVs dominate its market share. What is interesting though is that this most awaited new model does not fit completely in any of the two categories.

porsche body types*Source:Porsche©

Even on the official website, Porsche does not put the car in any category. But the body type is actually something in between the 911 and Panamera. Much longer than the first one, and slightly shorter than the second. It also has 4 doors and usable backseats, even though they are more sport-oriented than luxury-focused as those in the Panamera. As for numbers and performance, the Taycan rivals with the top of the line 911 Turbo both for horsepower and acceleration. It actually is the fastest accelerating road-legal Porsche on the 0-62 mph (0-100 km/h).

z body types

SO, WHERE DOES THE TAYCAN FITS AND WHY?

The Taycan fits perfectly in the middle of Porsche’s lineup but also completely on its own. It is in fact a sporty car, with some astonishing performance, as mentioned in the previous paragraph, but aims at the best everyday usability possible, as it happens for more and more luxury car manufacturers lately. McLaren’s GT and Ferrari Roma are two good examples from companies that are mostly focused on pure supercars.

taycan front back*Source:Porsche©

Porsche for its first EV picked a completely new model instead of giving a full-electric powertrain to an existing one. This choice gave the company a wider range of action and a few important advantages.

  • First, releasing a new model allowed Porsche to develop the car without having to focus on comparisons with its ICE predecessors and without precise expectations (even though for such a brand every new model will be subject to really high expectations).

  • Secondly, developing a completely new model gives a big advantage also in terms of branding to make the new model stand out more from the ‘regular’ product lineup. Something that, for instance, Aston Martin failed to do with the Rapide E (or RapidE), the full-electric version of the 4-door sports saloon teased back in 2015 and finally scrapped at the beginning of 2020. The model similar in body type to the Taycan had too a focus on everyday usability and was in fact conceived to compete with the successful Panamera. The Rapide though was not as successful, and even in the Aston Martin lineup, it ended up selling way less than the more popular Vantage, DB9 or Vanquish. The first full-electric from the British manufacturer was unfortunately too close in identity to an unsuccessful model.

  • For similar reasons, a completely new model, allows Porsche to measure the clients’ reaction with less bias and thus adapt and learn more for upcoming EV models.

  • Finally, the decision to produce a totally new model also serves the purpose of easing the customer base into the EV transition. Other models will be gradually introduced, from the current lineup, starting with those where the pure sporty driving experience is less relevant.  

This is why it is likely that the 911 will be the last surviving ICE in the product range, maybe hybridised. And this also brings me to the next point…

cross turismo panamera hybrid*Source:Porsche©

COMING PORSCHE EVS AND FUTURE STRATEGY

The next EV, set to be released in 2021, is Cross Turismo. It is going to be a more practical derivative of the Taycan, which by now has its own strong identity in Porsche’s product range. It will tap into the most successful car segment right now. That of small SUVs and Crossovers. It makes even more sense then that the second full-electric to come to the market right after will be the Macan. The crossover by Porsche has been, since its release, the best-selling model by far. With well over half a million units delivered in the last 6 years, it outsold even the bigger sister Cayenne which from 2014 to 2019 sold 452,870 units.

It is also due to this astonishing success though, that differently from the all-new Cross Turismo, Porsche is somewhat forced to keep offering ICE versions of the Macan. Returning clients might consider the electric version in some ‘EV-Developed’ markets in the US, Asia, or Europe, but many more are likely to opt for the combustion engine one, whether it is due to simple preference, or worries regarding the everyday usability or charging network infrastructure presence.

graph models*Does not include Special models like 918 Spyder, and 1386 Taycan units sold in 2019 after the launch

So, it is clear that, at least in this early stage, Porsche’s strategy for electrification plays on the safe side betting on its brand strengths rather than on outrageous or unexpected projects to shake the market.

The long-term plan complements these first steps. Porsche CEO Oliver Blume was recently quoted saying

“By 2024, the sports car manufacturer will invest around €10 billion in the hybridisation, electrification and digitalisation of its cars, and is consistently enhancing its offering in the area of electromobility […] The company is anticipating that by the middle of this decade already half of the entire product range will be sold as fully electric models or partially electric plug-in hybrids”

In the last two decades, Porsche has been a massive success in targeting new developing market segments and repositioning the brand to attract new customers while maintaining its core values (and the numbers speak for themselves).  

As it has been for the Luxury SUVs in the first decade of the 2000s and the Panamera in the 2010s, Porsche is once again ahead of the curve and, most likely, setting the trend in the top luxury segment of the market for electric vehicles.

 

Nico Rosberg enters the Rimac Family: Rimac Business Model

  • Brand: Rimac
  • Topic: Electric Vehicle Market, Strategy & Marketing

Around a year ago, 2016 Formula 1 World Champion Nico Rosberg now turned into Entrepreneur/YouTuber published a video in which he talked about his intention to buy a hypercar. He then asked his audience for opinions on the options he selected (even though he already had his preference which was fairly easy to imagine, considering his passion for EV technology and innovation). Potential choices were Ferrari's latest hybrid SF90 Stradale, Aston Martin’s upcoming hybrid Valhalla, Swedish hybrid Koenigsegg Regera and the fully electric 1914 horsepower Rimac C_Two.

rimac cover

In one of his latest videos, he announced he is going for the hyper EV C_Two by Rimac. Considered his popularity among enthusiasts, this is another important endorsement for the Croatian company, whose founder and CEO Mate Rimac already appeared on Rosberg’s social channels on previous occasions.

I say “another” important endorsement because in its relatively short life (11 years) the high-performance EV manufacturer has already gained such an impressive reputation making it a really a one-in-a-million success story.

MATE RIMAC AND HIS COMPANY

In this era of companies identified in the media by a single person, Mate Rimac might be less known to the mass than prominent personalities such as Elon Musk (just to stay in a similar industry), but his achievements, dedication, and vision are every bit as impressive and inspirational.

He distinguished himself by winning several prizes in high school thanks to his final project of a glove engineered to substitute keyboard and mouse, in a period in which touch screens were not as common as today. His story in automotive, like that of other great companies, began in a garage turning a BMW E30, the second-generation 3 Series produced between 82 and 94, into a full-electric racing car.

From this humble beginning, and then through deals and investments to produce unique high-performance electric cars, the company has grown incredibly fast. Funding by established players has allowed the company to grow its workforce to over 450 employees in 2018. And now to already over 700, a number that likely counts also Greyp, the electric bicycle sister company established in 2013.

In an interview, Mate Rimac himself confirms how the company represents a quite unique example in the automotive business even financially, with 8 years of profitability out of 10, and a current solid position, on the back of the numerous investments and partnerships. In a highly competitive and capital-intensive industry like automotive, in fact, just looking since the year 2000s, there are numerous examples of big names, operating in various segments, that went bankrupt. And this is without even looking at start-ups.

rimac C two*Rimac C_Two - Now called Nevera

As of 2020, the automaker has two models to its credit. The Concept_One, produced in only 8 units, and the C_Two, which due to delays caused by the pandemic, will see the first deliveries in 2021. But while the electric hypercars earned the attention of the public, it is a different business model that allowed Rimac, to survive first and to reach its current scale.

RIMAC’S BUSINESS MODEL AND COMPETITORS

In the automotive space, Rimac does have a few competitors. I went into detail on the electric hypercar niche in a previous article here. Without considering the more traditional companies such as Aston Martin, Ferrari, McLaren, or Lamborghini that are gradually transitioning toward electricity, these last few years have seen several companies presenting their own version of a luxury performance EV. Lotus, Nio, Pininfarina, and more

But by looking at the bigger picture, the situation is quite different. It is indeed in its business model. The cars, along with being the company’s major product, served also the second purpose of showcasing the potential of an electric powertrain.

Two are the main factors that set Rimac apart from any other company right now.

First and foremost, is the firm’s expertise built through countless cycles of trial and error. In the CEO’s words “In less than a decade we have built up a comprehensive know-how in developing high-performance electric powertrain and battery technology, innovative infotainment, and telemetry systems and many other core vehicle systems. Our hypercars are at the pinnacle of technology, redefining the idea of the supercar”(Source: Rimac Press). Such unmatched know-how in this growing niche in turn translates into a number of quality partnerships.

c two components*Rimac C_Two Powertrain Components ©Rimac Media

A point of pride for the Croatian company is the exceptional level of vertical integration. They produce the vast majority of components and software in-house. Something that very few automakers achieve, especially the small ones. In the same interview quoted before, Mate Rimac mentions only two other manufacturers that achieved what Rimac is doing. Koenigsegg and Pagani. On the one hand, Pagani buys its engines from AMG, while Koenigsegg also has a high percentage of components produced in-house that stay that way. On the other hand, though, Rimac is using its unique expertise to offer other automakers the most sought-after technologies. Overall, around two-thirds of its business comes from projects and supply for other companies.

I will come back to the second factor in the last paragraph.

PARTNERSHIPS AND INVESTMENTS TIMELINE

Since the early stages of the company, there have been numerous projects and partnerships, some undisclosed. The first was the full-electric Volar-E, based on Rimac’s Concept_One, produced for the Spanish Applus+ IDIADA in 2013. 8 Units of the car were produced in Total, with Rimac delivering Electric-motors, wiring, other components, and co-developing the wheels. The car was also completely assembled by Rimac.

rimac concept one*Rimac Concept_One ©Rimac Media

In 2014 the company secures €10 million investment by different figures. A year after, it was the turn of the Tajima Rimac E-Runner Concept_One, a one-off racing car for the hillclimb of Pikes Peak, that beat its ICE competitors, whose engines struggled due to the oxygen scarcity.

At the beginning of 2017, Rimac starts working on the Battery System for the Aston Martin Valkyrie. By the end of the year, the company secures also €30 million by Chinese Camel Group, one of the major battery manufacturers and recycler.

2018 is an even bigger year for the Croatian manufacturer. In around 6 months, Porsche acquired a 10% stake in Rimac (later raised to 15%), Seat sportscar division Cupra formed a partnership to produce the electric model E-Racer and finally also Pininfarina jointly developed its own electric hypercar Battista.

The collaborations do not end there though. Along with Renault, Rimac established a partnership with Koenigsegg to provide the world’s most power-dense battery-system and other systems for the Regera. At the same time, the Swedish manufacturer helps with low-volume production processes, structural composites, and other electronic components.

In 2019, Kia and Hyundai invested respectively €16 million and €64 million to collaborate with Rimac for the production of electric high-performance EVs.

MATE RIMAC

Yes, Mate Rimac is the second factor that allowed the company to become the success it isand inspire the trust of large established automotive groups or high-performance car manufacturers.

von koenigsegg mate rimac*Mate Rimac and Christian Von Koenigsegg ©Rimac Media

Much like Christian Von Koenigsegg and Horacio Pagani(to remain in the low-volume, high-performance luxury car niche), Mate Rimac is the reflection and message of his company. His genius and forward-thinking personality earned him his status. In a highly competitive environment such as luxury automotive, all three managed to bring their own very personal vision and charisma to create unique realities, each one in a different way. Where bigger automakers have to mainly rely on a strong brand, small manufacturers further benefit from such strong personalities that constantly stand out becoming the true representation and embodiment of their own company.  

A widely known personality like Nico Rosberg, deeply involved in automotive, new tech, and sustainability, deciding to become part of the brand with such a public display is a big deal. Especially after having shown on numerous occasions his good relationship and esteem for Mate Rimac. And this cannot but strengthen his influence beyond just the automotive business.

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